Monday, October 24, 2005

Carnack Gates

From David Coursey :
This week's most interesting quote comes from Bill Gates, who told a college newspaper that Blu-ray, Sony's HD DVD format, 'is the last physical format there will ever be.'
'Everything's going to be streamed directly or on a hard disk,' Gates added. 'So, in this way, it's even unclear how much [Blu-ray] counts.'
Gates has been a bit of bomb in the tech prognostication department, otherwise his name would be Steve Jobs and he would run Apple. I'm especially surprised anyone would lead this credence since it was Gates who figured PCs would NEVER need more than 640K of RAM (which is especially ironic since my work PC needs more than 640MB of RAM to run Gate's latest incarnation).


Marty Plumbo said...

"Nobody will ever need more than 640K ..." is a great Gates "prediction", but let's not forget his other infamous psychic insights, such as ...

1. His mid-90s bet on CD-ROM multimedia, just before that market started imploding.

2. His completely missing the birth and popularity of the internet and web, due in large part to #1 above.

3. His the "Road Ahead" tome, so replete with misforcasts (including no mention of the web) that he had to completely revise it just a couple of years later.

4. His 2002 TabletPC launch predictions of the form-factor's dominance within half a decade, only a year later scaled back to modest predictions of the stylus as supplemental input option.

Sometimes, it seems like the only safe prediction is that you can count on Gates as a reverse-barometer of future trends.

Evil Sandmich said...

I'm glad you had that hot on your mind, the '640K' thing was the only one that sprang to mind. He also predicted that Spam would disappear, that technology would deal with it so well that Spammers wouldn't bother. Although that prediction will no doubt fail as well, I think he put a rather hefty time frame on that one (like 5 years).